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Vol. 01 · Issue 04Research & Theses · The desk, the standard, the archiveQuarterly cadence
The desk · The standard · The archive

Every thesis is signed.
Every break is kept.

Who writes what you read, what they cover, and how. The standard a thesis must clear before it is shown to you. The lifecycle every thesis is held to. And the archive — wins and losses — that we will never let disappear.

5 analysts~80 active theses≤ 90 day freshness0 anonymous
01
Chapter 01 · The desk
Five analysts. Named. Public. Accountable.

Five analysts, four cities, one standard. Every thesis you read in the app was written by a named human you can look up here. Past contributors are archived. The history of every handoff is preserved. We do not use anonymous or algorithmic theses. We will not start.

Pull quote · Marisol Hale, Lead Research
"Our standard for publishing a thesis is: we would be embarrassed if a thoughtful person read it, kept their copy, and quoted it back to us at the post-mortem."
Marisol Hale
Founder · Lead Research
New York · 12y experience
Twelve years multi-strat at Greenoak. Built her reputation reading quarterlies others skimmed. Lead on Consumer and Healthcare picks. Maintains the authoring standard.
Covers
COST · NVO · UNH · ELV
24
Signed theses
Theo Bremmer
Macro & Rates
Boston · 18y experience
Ex-fixed-income strategist at a primary dealer. Writes the quarterly macro memo. Sets the rate and inflation overlay that informs the bond sleeve in every profile.
Covers
Macro overlay · BNDW · IEFA
11
Signed theses
Anaya Iyer
Energy & Industrials
Houston · 10y experience
Ten years sell-side. Has watched the same upstream operators across three cycles. Bottom-up shop visits, channel checks, and a healthy suspicion of analyst consensus.
Covers
CAT · CNQ · PWR · DE
16
Signed theses
D. Park
Consumer & Healthcare
San Francisco · 8y experience
Eight years on a generalist desk. Channel-check obsessive. Has read every footnote of every healthcare 10-K from the last decade. Writes the longest theses.
Covers
COST · UNH · IDXX · ELV
19
Signed theses
Asa Lindqvist
International & EM
Stockholm · 9y experience
Nine years across European banking and Nordic equity research. Northern-rim coverage and emerging markets. The dissenting voice on US-centric calls.
Covers
NVO · TSM · IDXX
12
Signed theses
Conflicts disclosure
Every analyst's personal holdings are disclosed at the bottom of every thesis they author. Pre-clearance is required before any trade in a covered name. The compliance log is reviewable on Form ADV Part 2B for each individual.
External research partners
A small number of theses are co-authored with vetted external partners. They are credited the same way and held to the same standard. We do not republish broker research under our own name.
02
Chapter 02 · The authoring standard
What must be true before a thesis is published.

A thesis is a structured document, not a vibe. Fifteen fields are required at publication; one is conditional. Every field has a reason. Every reason is documented in our internal style guide, which we publish on the engineering blog when the next revision goes live.

Why pre-declared break criteria. Because retrofitted ones are a self-deception. If we couldn't have said what would make us wrong before we entered the position, we have no business being in it.
The two-reviewer rule
No thesis is published without sign-off from a second analyst who has read the full document. The reviewer's name appears alongside the author's. They share authorship, share responsibility, and share the post-mortem if it breaks.
01Universal descriptionOne sentence a non-investor could quote.Required
02Plain-English thesisThree to five paragraphs. No jargon without a tooltip.Required
03Thesis typeQuality compounder · Cyclical · Special situation · Etc.Required
04Suitable risk profilesWhich of the five profiles may hold this.Required
05Sector & ESG tagsFor sleeves, exclusions, and screening.Required
06Weight rangeTypical and maximum, per profile.Required
07Time horizon6 / 12 / 18 / 24+ months.Required
08Break criteriaPre-declared. Stated upfront, never retrofitted.Required
09Bull / Base / BearThree scenarios with narrative.Required
10Probability weightsSum to 100. Assigned by the author.Required
11TargetsPer-scenario, with derivation in the appendix.Required
12Valuation justificationWhy these multiples, not industry medians blindly.Required
13ConfidenceLow · Moderate · High. Graded, not bragged.Required
14Author & reviewerTwo names. Always.Required
15Update logVersioned. Diffs visible. Originals preserved.Required
16Channel checksWhen applicable. Source-redacted, method noted.When app.
03
Chapter 03 · A thesis in motion
From publication to archive — and what happens at every stage.

Every thesis lives on a calendar and on events. The calendar guarantees freshness; events keep us honest. When a pre-declared break criterion trips, we exit the position, write the post-mortem, and move the document to the archive — where it stays viewable forever.

The version that broke is the one we file. We do not retroactively soften the prose. Wins and losses live in the same place, with the same level of detail.

What "freshness" requires
· Author re-read in last 90 days
· Scenarios re-priced against current valuation
· Break criteria still defensible
· Confidence grade revisited and dated
The lifecycle · COST, illustrated
Published
t = 0
Two-reviewer sign-off. Goes live to qualified profiles.
Event update
Earnings beat
Scenarios re-weighted. Probability shifts logged.
Calendar review
Q+1
Hard quarterly review. Confidence re-dated.
Event update
Material news
Author notes a new datapoint. Target nudged.
Calendar review
Q+2
Reaffirmed. Author re-reads, signs off again.
Break flagged
Renewal rate falls
Pre-declared criterion tripped. Exit recommended.
Archived
t+1d
Final thesis version + post-mortem preserved. Forever.
EventCalendarBreakArchive
04
Chapter 04 · The archive
Wins and losses, kept equal. Forever.

Every thesis Tarn has ever published is here. Open positions. Closed positions. The ones that worked. The ones that didn't. The version of the document on the day the thesis broke, the post-mortem, the lessons we wrote down for next time. We do not quietly delete losers.

Why this matters. A research desk that only shows its wins is selling a story. Showing the losses is the only honest way to measure us — and the only way for you to know what kind of analyst you're trusting with your money.
Hit rate since inception
67%
Of 78 closed theses since the desk opened, 52 met or exceeded their base-case target. 26 did not. Both numbers are above-the-fold here for a reason.
Recent · open and broken
Showing 6 of 78
PARA
Paramount Global
D. Park·Sep 2024·14 months
Streaming losses widened past our cushion. Pre-declared break: "Direct-to-consumer EBIT does not improve in 2025." It did not.
Entered
$13.20
Exited
$10.84
−17.9%
Total
Broken
TSM
Taiwan Semi.
Asa Lindqvist·Mar 2024·Open · 26mo
AI capex thesis intact. Bull case re-weighted twice. High confidence as of Q1 2026.
Entered
$108.40
Exited
+78%
Total
Open
PYPL
PayPal
M. Hale·Jan 2023·18 months
Branded checkout share losses accelerated. Break: TPV growth below 6%. Exited; capital redeployed to V.
Entered
$76.30
Exited
$61.20
−19.8%
Total
Broken
NVO
Novo Nordisk
M. Hale·Nov 2022·Open · 41mo
GLP-1 thesis — closed the bull scenario in 2024. Re-weighted toward base; high conviction.
Entered
$98.00
Exited
+142%
Total
Open
ENPH
Enphase Energy
A. Iyer·Jun 2023·11 months
Rate-cycle hit. Break: residential solar attach rate below 26%. Acknowledged the macro miss; archived.
Entered
$182.00
Exited
$118.40
−34.9%
Total
Broken
IDXX
IDEXX Labs
D. Park·Apr 2024·Open · 25mo
Recurring-revenue thesis intact. Confidence moderated post Q3 2025; still core to Growth profile.
Entered
$486.00
Exited
+12%
Total
Open
Browse the full archive →
05
Chapter 05 · The quarterly memo
One long document a quarter. Macro, sectors, and what we changed our mind about.

Four times a year, the desk publishes a long memo. It is the macro overlay that informs our bond sleeve, the sector-by-sector update on the curated equity universe, the ESG and macroeconomic risks we are watching, and a section we call "things we got wrong" — short notes on positions that didn't behave the way we said they would, before we knew why.

It runs 20–40 pages. It is the document we'd most want a thoughtful skeptic to read. It is freely available — you do not need a Core account to read it.

Read Q1 2026 memo (PDF) →
Quarterly memo · Q1 2026
The next leg of the cycle
32 pp · 12 min
Table of contents
01Macro overlay · rates, inflation, curveT. Bremmer
02Consumer · the bifurcation deepensM. Hale · D. Park
03Energy & industrials · late-cycle postureA. Iyer
04Healthcare · GLP-1 saturation, biotech resetD. Park
05International · Northern-rim exposureA. Lindqvist
06Things we got wrong this quarterThe desk
07Watchlist · names approaching publicationThe desk
Past memos archived since Q1 2024 · all freely readable
06
Chapter 06 · Coverage universe
What we cover. What we don't. And why.

A small universe, deeply known, is more useful than a large universe loosely covered. We cap our active equity coverage at roughly a hundred names. The bond sleeve is largely passive ETFs with a macro overlay. We do not cover crypto, options, margin, or leveraged products. We do not cover IPOs in their first six months. We do not cover anything we cannot describe in plain English.

The hundred-name cap
Why the cap? Because we'd rather be the desk that knows ten things deeply than the desk that has an opinion on a thousand. A new add requires a drop — we will not stretch the desk past what it can hold in working memory.
What we cover · what we don't
Yes
US & developed-market equities
Quality compounders
Long-cycle industrial / energy
Selective EM (Northern-rim, large-cap Asia)
Bond ETFs · macro-overlaid
Sector ETFs · where active coverage is thin
No
Crypto, in any form
Options, including covered calls
Margin trading
Leveraged or inverse ETFs
IPOs in first 6 months
OTC and small-cap (<$2B mkt cap)
Anything we cannot describe in plain English
If you want to invest in something we don't cover, you can — through other platforms. We are intentionally narrower than the brokerage you may already have. We will tell you that, openly, rather than pretend we cover what we don't.
07
Chapter 07 · Questions
On theses, the desk, and how we handle being wrong.
How does Tarn pick stocks?
Bottom-up, with a strong bias toward quality compounders and businesses we can describe in two paragraphs. Macro and rates are an overlay, not a driver. The two-reviewer rule applies to every name.
What happens to my thesis history if an analyst leaves?
Their authored theses are preserved. The handoff is recorded in the update log. The new author signs and the page shows both names — original and successor.
Can I see broken theses?
Yes, on the archive page. Every break is published with the version that tripped, the criterion that triggered, and the post-mortem the desk wrote afterward.
Do you use AI to write theses?
No. Some tooling helps with screening and footnote retrieval. Every word of every thesis is written and signed by a human. We will tell you if that ever changes.
Will you cover my favorite stock?
Maybe. The universe cap means a new add requires a drop. The Watchlist section of the quarterly memo names what we are evaluating. You can request coverage; we cannot promise a yes.
Are theses public or only for Core users?
Summary cards, scenarios, and target ranges are visible on Free. Full thesis cards — including the full valuation justification and per-scenario derivation — are Core and above. The quarterly memo is freely available to anyone.
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02
How it works
From quiz to portfolio in ten minutes.
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03
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05
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06
About
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